For twenty-four hours on Monday 14 October, Communist China surrounded Taiwan. One hundred and fifty-three aircraft and 36 ships cut the country off from the world, but however impressive this show of force was, what was it all about?
Diplomats, sinologists and military men are still wondering, because if it was a rehearsal, if Mr Xi is really preparing to annex democratic China – to reunify China, as he would put it – where would that lead him and where would that lead the world?
After long battles, the Chinese dictatorship would end up taking control of this island which is larger than Belgium. But apart from the fact that it would then come up against enduring resistance, it would actually lose out on all fronts. With India and Japan in the lead, Asia would close ranks against a power whose ambition is to subjugate the whole continent. The United States would immediately side with this alliance, which it is already working to build. The European Union would do the same, as it is hard to imagine the EU supporting Communist China against the United States and the rest of Asia.
Not only would the Chinese regime become isolated, its economy would suffer considerably as a result, since it would have to cope with a sharp drop in its exports to the West, which are already in poor shape. By invading Taiwan, Mr Xi Jinping would have nothing to gain. On the contrary, he would have a lot to lose, and if these tricks have no other aim than to intimidate this democracy, he is also mistaken, because it is all having the opposite effect.
These repeated manoeuvres are only leading Taiwan to strengthen its defence systems, the United States to assert its naval presence in the region and the Asian countries to join forces.
With no more subtlety than a catapult, Mr Xi is decidedly not the best possible leader for a China that now so badly needs to reflect on the responsibilities conferred onto it by the position it acquired, to make friends and to reassure the world of its intentions.
Rather than abusing the competitiveness of its production costs to try to eliminate its European competitors, China should seek to define balanced economic relations with the European Union in order to turn it into a moderating factor in its tug-of-war with the United States.
Rather than supporting Russia’s aggression against Ukraine, China should understand that Europe cannot see it as a reliable partner when it is lending its hand to a war of annexation on the Union’s borders.
Rather than continuing to threaten Taiwan’s independence, the Chinese President should be proposing ever greater economic cooperation with the other China, tying it to the continent without turning it into a protectorate. A China that is willing and able to disarm the concerns it is arousing should declare that there is only one China, but that its unification can only be peaceful and derive from the freely expressed joint will of the populations of the two existing states.
Mr Xi would thus reassure Asia, Europe and the United States. He would multiply his support and demonstrate a self-confidence that he appears to be lacking right now.
(Photo: © Taiwan Presidential Office 2016)