Donald Trump could win. We cannot rule out the possibility that he could end up forcing Ukraine to surrender and agreeing with Vladimir Putin to divide Europe into zones of influence, but it is still only a possibility and not fact.

It is not because the only weapon at his disposal would be very dangerous to use. With a single click, he could cut off Ukraine’s access to American military intelligence. Ukraine would then no longer have the means to ward off Russian attacks. This would quickly put an end to this people’s freedom and independence. Vladimir Putin’s troops would quickly set up camp on the borders of Poland, Romania, Moldova, Hungary and Slovakia. The Americans and the world would witness first-hand the political disaster caused by Donald Trump, and he would find it very difficult to justify to Congress, the Europeans and all of the United States’ allies around the world such a debacle and the assassination of this people which is fleeing from the bombs.

This would be all the more difficult given that Vladimir Putin’s victory would also be China’s, that the mid-term election campaign is set to begin in January, in other words tomorrow morning, and that the Republicans are beginning to fear less the wrath of Donald Trump than the electoral defeats that his plummeting poll ratings portend.

There are weapons that are best not used, and the second reason why the White House has not yet won is that Ukraine and the Europeans are playing their cards close to their chest. Instead of denouncing the American proposals as mere transcriptions of Russian demands, Kiev, Paris, London and Berlin are thanking Donald Trump for “working for peace”, agreeing to discuss his plan, and even rushing to do so, but with amendments that change it completely.

Where the plan called for the Ukrainians to withdraw from regions of Donbass that the Russians were unable to conquer, Volodymyr Zelensky and his negotiators propose that both Russians and Ukrainians – not just the Ukrainians – retreat far enough to create a vast demilitarised zone that the United States would help to monitor, along with others, notably the Europeans.

Reformulated in this way, the Russian-American proposal would oblige Donald Trump to guarantee Ukraine’s security alongside the European Union and the United Kingdom, in other words to defend Ukraine against Vladimir Putin. This was not the initial intention of the White House, and even less so of Moscow. In fact, it is the opposite of what the Russian and American presidents wanted, and when Donald Trump, following the Kremlin’s lead, calls for elections to be held in Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky does not refuse either.

He accepted and approved, but only on condition, of course, that the United States help to ensure the smooth running of the elections, which would be inconceivable – wouldn’t it? – without a ceasefire, without a halt to the fighting on the current front line, which is something Vladimir Putin does not want.

Caught up in a web of embraces and counter-proposals that are difficult to reject without openly appearing to be an ally of the Kremlin, Donald Trump is more or less a power with his hands tied.

As for the third reason why he has not already won, it is because the Russian army is not making progress. Its advances are only millimetric and infinitely slow. It is not making any breakthroughs that would allow Vladimir Putin to proclaim any kind of victory and, more importantly, Ukrainian forces are managing to strike more and more Russian ships, weapons stocks and oil refineries. Every night, Ukrainians are plunged into blood, darkness and cold, but the Russians, too, are beginning to suffer from this war, which is also crippling their economy.

If it came down to betting, one would not bet on Trump.

( Photo : President of Ukraine @Flickr )