According to MEP Bernard Guetta, Kamala Harris’s priority should be to put up a front of the democracies against the Russian and Chinese dictatorships by sharing the burdens and responsibilities of the Atlantic Alliance with the 27 members of the European Union.
This is now the most likely outcome. There may be many twists and turns in two months’ time, but you should win, because apart from the fact that the only thing your opponent knows how to do is denigrate, he is already losing ground to the common sense and the desire for fairness that you so happily embody.
You will be President of the United States, but you will not only have the immense task of reconciling two Americas that are on the verge of tearing each other apart. Because there is nothing, neither a real balance of power nor a minimal consensus, to guarantee the slightest stability in the world, it will also be up to you to lay the foundations of a new international order before decades of war take over to do so.
The world is to be rebuilt, but not even your country can manage to do it alone. Even for the two of us: the United States and the European Union, it will be difficult, and the first thing we have to do is to make our alliance a lasting one, by re-founding our relationship.
You are right when you say in Washington that we are now united and rich enough to finance our defence. It is true that there is no longer any justification for the imbalance in our contributions to our common security, but it is also true that we cannot increase our military spending without this effort benefiting, first and foremost, our industries and our scientific research: European economies and employment.
Our fellow citizens cannot accept that their taxes should benefit your country and not ours. We will, of course, have to ensure the compatibility of our weapons systems. We will have to allow for transitional phases and envisage joint projects to go further and faster, but neither you nor we can any longer pretend to ignore the double refusal we have to overcome. You no longer want to pay more than your share. And we, too, can no longer accept that you alone should remain in charge – alone in deciding what should or should not be done, while increasing our investment would favour your industry to the detriment of the development of pan-European defence industries.
Developments, deadlines, balances and compatibility – everything is up for negotiation. It will take time, because burden-sharing cannot be achieved without sharing decisions and responsibilities. We won’t get there all at once, and not even in four years, but you, Madam, can win everything and make us all win by setting your conditions now. If you were to do this during these two months of campaigning, your fellow citizens would see your determination to defend their interests, we Europeans would be forced to specify our demands and the world would be able to see that, without further ado, we are working to strengthen our alliance, that of the two greatest democracies.
Everything would change just as quickly as your appearance on the scene had redesigned this presidential election. Having counted on the disunity of the United States, the disintegration of our Union and the decadence of our civilisations, China and Russia would have to revise their forecasts to include a renewal of the West. Many medium and small powers would find Russian mercenaries less attractive and would be less willing to sign the agreements proposed by China, which are akin to agreements proposed by a lion to its prey.
In Moscow, doubts would grow about dreams of imperial resurrection and more and more questions would be raised about how to end the Ukrainian adventure. Faced with declining growth and demographic trends, Mr Xi’s China, the elephant in the room, should ask itself whether it is still in its interest to play the Putin card at a time when you, Madam, are bringing the two sides of the Atlantic closer together.
But neither you nor we are under any illusions.
You will have to be extremely bold because, many of your diplomats, your generals and your most astute analysts, not to mention your industrialists, will tell you that there is no time to lose with a Europe that still cannot speak with one voice. For our part, we are bound to feed this American Euroscepticism further if we continue to underestimate the progress of our unity, even though Trump, Covid and Vladimir Putin have rallied us to the need for a strategic autonomy and a common defence for the Union.
You will be told, Madam, that the priority is not to redefine Atlantic solidarity but to calm your relations with Beijing. You will be told that the dangers to Taiwan and to international trade must be averted, and that the talks that have begun to this end must be deepened. Of course. These conversations must be intensified, but why would the Chinese leadership choose the path of compromise if the United States is unable to restore a balance of power by initiating the rebuilding of a common front with Europe?
You must surprise your voters and the five continents, innovate, change the game, and above all not listen to those who only know how to think in yesterday’s world, who do not see the fragility of the Russian and Chinese dictatorships, who had already resigned themselves to a Trump victory and do not believe in boldness any more than they believe in necessity. You must start by sending out a strong message about Europe, because it is with the European Union that you will be able to give Xi Jinping food for thought, impose the coexistence of two states on the Israelis and Palestinians, undermine Vladimir Putin and restore the strength and primacy of the democratic idea. Open this new page, Madam. It is the key to success, because the world needs reasons to hope.