“If it’s Harris, you’ll see”, people will have said a lot by Tuesday, “the Europeans will be so relieved to have escaped Trump that they’ll start believing in the American umbrella again, and won’t talk about developing a common Defense any more”.
“If it’s Trump, you’ll see”, people will have said everywhere, “many will try to negotiate bilaterally to keep a sort of American protection for themselves, and that will be the end of any idea of European strategic autonomy, possibly even of the Union itself”.
Harris or Trump, there is nothing unlikely about the European Union asserting itself as an autonomous political power. The whole Union is almost unanimously in favour of this, and the most convincing signs are that the next Commission will include Commissioners for Defence and the Mediterranean.
Within 100 days, the former will have to submit a report proposing an industrial and financial strategy to equip the Union with common military capabilities. The latter will have to lay the foundations for genuine co-development between the two shores of the Mediterranean lake, in order to reduce Europe’s industrial dependence on China, create jobs in Africa and reduce migratory flows.
In both cases, the Union intends to take on a political dimension on its eastern and southern flanks while, on its western flank, bridging the gap with the United States, a desire that goes back 8 years already, however new it may seem. In 2016, on the evening of Donald Trump’s election, the most Atlanticist of Europeans fell flat on their faces as they saw a man arrive at the White House who had campaigned by casting doubt on the United States’ commitment to defending Europe.
The necessity of a common European defence became clear to everyone. A taboo was broken, and the Russian aggression against Ukraine precipitated joint action as it drove the 27 to empty their arsenals to help the Ukrainians to face up to the situation, and then to buy their ammunition together in order to lower prices and harmonize their armaments.
Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas was behind this decision, and she will now take charge of European diplomacy. The future Defence Commissioner, Andrius Kubilius, is a former Lithuanian Prime Minister. On the need for a European Defence, there is today a convergence of views between France and the countries that have left the Soviet bloc, and it is so profound that the Polish Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, has just declared that, Trump or Harris, the future of Europe depended first and foremost on the Europeans, because “the era for geopolitical outsourcing is over”.
Yet we cannot rule out the possibility that the pessimists are right.
Europe’s poor financial state could stand in the way of common military investment by the 27. Mrs Le Pen could come to power in France. The international situation may deteriorate at a much faster pace than Europe’s political assertion takes hold. Absolutely nothing is certain, but Harris or Trump, the United States’ retreat is so profound, and Europe’s desire for political re-emergence so convincing, that even a country like Taiwan wants to move closer to the Union.
Last week alone, the democratic China welcomed three parliamentary delegations from Europe, including one from the European Parliament. Half-heartedly and sometimes clearly, the country’s most senior officials made it clear to us that they needed a strong Europe, because they could no longer rely on the United States alone. “We are the Ukraine of Asia”, some students told me ¬¬- the Ukraine from which the United States is on the verge of turning away, the Ukraine where the fate of Europe is at stake, just as that of Asia will be played out in Taiwan.
(Photo: Michael Vadon, Joe Biden @ Flickr)