It was the clearest of confessions. When Vladimir Putin said last Thursday, 23 November: Donald Trump is “an intelligent man who already has a lot of experience. I think he will find a solution”, this sycophancy was obviously a cry for help.
Almost three years after trying to get his hands on Ukraine, the Russian president still only controls a fifth of the country, including Crimea. He has also lost the Kursk region, from which he has been unable to dislodge the Ukrainian troops. He is so afraid of calling a general mobilisation that he ended up resorting to using North Korean troops, while food prices soar, air traffic is reduced due to a lack of spare parts and Russian interest rates continue to rise.
Vladimir Putin is brandishing his nuclear weapons, but his only hope – as he has just admitted – is that Donald Trump will help him get out of the trap he has got himself into.
It is therefore highly likely that these men will negotiate a compromise that the Ukrainians will simply have to endorse. Volodymyr Zelenski is so aware of this that he has just declared that the only way the Ukrainians would be able to give up the re-conquest of their lost territories is if NATO opened its doors to them. Donald Trump will refuse because he does not want to commit to protecting them. Vladimir Putin will not accept it either because it would be an admission of defeat, but both could envisage the European Union guaranteeing Ukraine’s security by deploying troops along the future demarcation line.
In the coming year or months, perhaps even before the American president takes office, the EU will have to make an existential choice.
Either it will want to take up this political, logistical and financial challenge, or it will declare itself materially and even politically incapable of doing so. Either it will assert itself as a player on the international stage, guaranteeing its own security, the protection of the amputated Ukraine and the stability of the continent, or it will shirk the responsibilities that will fall to it the moment the United States turns its back on Europe.
For the European Union, the moment of truth is approaching and the debate will be lively in the 27 capitals as well as in London. Why risk sending our forces to confront Russia? – some will ask. Why spend so much on this troop deployment when we are all strapped for cash? – many others will say. How can we agree to take such a step towards political union without even debating it,’ the outraged Eurosceptics, Europhobes and Eurominimalists will protest.
Russia will intervene massively in this debate, while Donald Trump will do his utmost to weaken one side in order to win over the other. This moment of truth will be so difficult that the outcome is unpredictable, but three men should carry decisive weight.
The first is Donald Tusk, the Polish prime minister, whose country is investing heavily in its military capabilities and who has himself been at the forefront of calls for the Union to stand up to Vladimir Putin by developing a common defence.
The second is Friedrich Merz, the Christian Democrat who is expected to become chancellor after the German elections on 23 February. In favour of borrowing, developing a European defence system and taking a firmer stance against Vladimir Putin, Friedrich Merz is likely to lead a coalition that is keen to assert the Union’s political position.
As for the third man, Emmanuel Macron, he has taken a very hard line against Vladimir Putin and can only re-establish himself on the French stage if he puts himself at the forefront of the international scene. The French president could prepare a new “Sorbonne speech” after the German elections, setting out the Union’s geopolitical priorities. He could already consult Donald Tusk and Friedrich Merz to ensure that their views coincide, paving the way for a Franco-German-Polish call for Europe to secure the demarcation line between the two Ukraines. The UK and the majority of member states would respond positively. Gradually, almost the whole Union would follow suit. In this way, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin would have taken the common defence of a political union out of limbo.
(Photos: Wikimedia Commons, © European Parliament 2019, 2022)