Israel no longer has any reason not to dare to make peace. Faced with an Iranian regime rejected by its own population, a regime allied with Vladimir Putin and so close to equipping itself with the bomb, Israel has won not one but four victories in a single stroke.
Not content with re-establishing a reputation for invincibility that had been called into question by the massacre of 7 October, it has made people forget the inhumanity of the reprisals launched against Gaza, mobilised the United States, France and Great Britain to its side and obtained the discreet but effective military support of several Arab countries. Because everyone fears the mullahs’ destabilisation efforts, Israel has just reconstituted a front of close friends and allies who were nevertheless increasingly disapproving of Benjamin Netanyahu’s policies. A total success, but now what?
The question now is not when and how far Israel will push its advantage against the Islamic Republic, but what it will do with this quadruple victory.
The first possibility: Benjamin Netanyahu can now think that he is in a position to continue to aim for the annihilation of Hamas, even at the cost of the suffering – death, hunger, misery, disease – caused to the population of Gaza. The Prime Minister may think so because the Iranian offensive has given new force to Israel’s argument about its right to defend itself against a terrorist organisation supported by Tehran, but that is not all. Above all, Benjamin Netanyahu was able to verify on Sunday that, in Arab capitals, fear of Iran far outweighed any solidarity with the Palestinians and that he could therefore continue to reject the two-state solution.
Against Hamas, against Iran and against the creation of a Palestinian state, Israel can now claim that its inflexibility has prevailed and that there is absolutely no question of deviating from it. This is the choice it will continue to make for as long as Benjamin Netanyahu is at its helm, but when the day comes when he has to step aside, it would be in Israel’s best interests to realise that it is when you are victorious that you have to offer a hand of appeasement and dare to make peace.
When one is in a position of strength, one can impose their conditions and, in this case, make the coexistence of two states conditional on a ban on the future Palestine acquiring heavy weapons, the recognition of Israel by all the countries of the Arab League and the creation of a regional security and cooperation organisation including Israel and based on the creation of a common market and development plans.
In recent months, the Israelis have been losing the support of their allies because the bombing of Gaza had isolated them. This is no longer the case, but at a time of victory over the Islamic Republic, they should remember that only the coexistence of two states and regional integration will ensure their security and Israel’s perpetuity.
