It is really hard to understand. How and why is a head of state denounced as a “warmonger” because he has declared that “nothing is excluded” in order to prevent Vladimir Putin from winning in Ukraine?
All those who condemn this aggression should, quite to the contrary, have applauded Emmanuel Macron for finally revealing the blindness that the Americans and Europeans had opted for by repeating huffing and puffing that they would not send ground troops to repel the Russian troops. Whether or not they had considered the possibility, whether or not they had ruled it out, why were they striving for reassuring Vladimir Putin rather than worrying him by leaving uncertainty hanging in the air? Why did they forget this basic tool in the art of war called strategic ambiguity, and why do they reproach the French President for having managed to make use of it again?
There are two explanations.
The first is that, with the exception of a large part of the Baltic people and the Poles, Western leaders have long believed that Vladimir Putin would come to his senses after failing to break up Ukraine in a matter of days. He will have to seek a compromise, they thought. He will offer to keep Crimea but withdraw from the Donbass. The Ukrainians would accept it, in exchange for the security guarantees that would come with joining the Atlantic Alliance and the European Union. An honourable agreement was still possible, they believed, and it was not up to us to jeopardise it by raising the stakes, even if only in words.
Because they had not taken seriously Vladimir Putin’s declared ambition to reconstitute the Russian Empire, the West was of course mistaken. It was in the spring of 2022, at the time of the Russian debacle, that aircraft and long-range missiles should have been delivered to Ukraine rather than letting the Russian army build the defence lines that Ukrainian fighters soon ran into, but now?
Regrets are pointless, but from now on it is imperative that Vladimir Putin should no longer be able to rely on what he considers to be the cowardice of Europeans who, he believes, are too decadent to even contemplate taking up the challenge he has set them. As the Polish Foreign Minister, Radoslaw Sikorski, has just said in approving of Emmanuel Macron: “The point is that Putin should be afraid, not that we should be afraid of Putin”.
Even a child would understand this, but the French left, right and extreme right are indignant in unison at this “nothing is excluded” as if it were going to precipitate a third world war. But no! This self-evident statement is not likely to provoke a nuclear exchange between France and Russia, but it is likely to make the master of the Kremlin realise that Europeans are genuinely determined to defend Ukraine and that they will do so even if Donald Trump is elected and turns his back on Kiev for good.
This warning had to be given to Vladimir Putin. It had to be said publicly, not as a prelude to sending in troops, but to avoid having to dispatch them en masse on the day when, having defeated Ukraine and reconstituted his forces, this tiny-footed Stalin would come to want to attack the Baltic States, counting on cowardice on the part of the Europeans and passivity on the part of the United States. It was necessary to turn the tables to open the eyes and ears of too many slumbering people – why so much emotion and protest?
Here again, the explanation is all too clear. The truth is that many European politicians, in France and elsewhere, are only prepared to support Ukraine on condition that no real sacrifices are required and that we can continue to feel at peace and continue to ignore the fact that Vladimir Putin has already declared war on us by trying to mobilise the Russians against us, by setting the Africans against Europe and by increasing political interference, cyber attacks and even military provocations.
“We support Ukraine, but on condition that immediate negotiations begin”, they say, without understanding that Putin wants to negotiate on what he has not yet conquered and keep what he has already annexed. We support Ukraine,” they say, “but…” and that is the only “but” that Putin has heard so far, a “but” on which he will no longer be able to count since the Europeans are waking up and at last “nothing is excluded”.
