They are all wrong. Those who rejoice at seeing the United States return to Europe as a result of the war in Ukraine are just as blind as those who lament the fact because, as real as it can be, this return is only temporary and not permanent.
It is due to the fact that both Democrats and Republicans have – rightly – feared that a victory of Vladimir Putin would strengthen Xi Jinping and would encourage him to invade Taiwan in order to assert China as the dominant power of this century. In an exceptional moment of bipartisan consensus, the two Americas agreed on the need to defeat the Russian aggression. American arms and capital poured into Kiev and this American aid, which was even more important than that of the 27, made Washington the main player on the European scene again.
This is the reality. It is not debatable, but we can already hear Republican elected representatives calling for not “giving a blank cheque” to Ukraine. By this they mean that American aid should be more strictly conditioned on the national interests of the United States and there are two reasons why their party would do so if it won the majority in Congress on 8 November.
The first is that many Republicans, Donald Trump first, feel only sympathy for Vladimir Putin’s authoritarianism, and the second is that they worry that a weakened Russia could now allow China to increase its influence in Central Asia and as far as Siberia.
The China issue is so decisive in Washington that it may lead the United States to distance itself from Ukraine as quickly as it drew closer to it eight months ago. As committed as they are to the defence of freedom, it is not even excluded that the Democrats will end up joining the Republicans there, because America’s main adversary is not the Kremlin but China. As long as Vladimir Putin seems strong enough to lend a hand to Beijing, the Americans will oppose him. Once he has lost his footing enough for China to expand its influence, everything will demand them not to contribute to a complete rout of Russia.
And then there are the voters. The US economy is not in great shape. Businesses and families are worried. That’s what prompted the Republican surge recorded by the polls before the mid-term elections. As for the 2024 presidential election: the outcome is so uncertain that it will be impossible for each party to overlook the discontent of the growing number of taxpayers who wonder why their money is being spent on Ukraine instead of themselves.
Seen from Europe, the war in Ukraine is on our doorstep. Seen from America, it is far away and far less threatening than it is for Central and even Western Europe. Even in Poland and the Baltic States, even in those European countries most closely linked to the United States, this difference is so well perceived that it is logical that many of the Union’s capitals consider that they should now be guaranteed the protection of the United States by buying them the weapons we need.
This choice is all the more understandable since the American arms industry is much more concentrated than that of the 27 Member States and is therefore better able to meet the Union’s needs. The climate is Atlanticist. It is in all its aspects, but this century is not in any way, because its great battle will be fought on the shores of the Pacific and no longer on the Atlantic. Beyond the short term, this obvious fact will inevitably prevail and the subject of the day is therefore not the return of America to Europe but the necessity to arm the Union and to close its ranks.
